2030's EV targets will pose challenges - Is the market ready?

The UK's electric vehicle rollout is set to accelerate into 2030, and major changes are needed in our transport system to meet government targets. Are we ready for the challenges that come with a transition of this scale?

Analysis from John de Bono looks at what's ahead:

• Meeting gov. targets will mean there's 8m more EVs on the road (up 7.5x)
• This will drive 20 TWh in additional electricity demand (up 6.25x)
• 230k extra public chargers are needed to support this transition (up 4.5x)

Managing the challenges of affordability, charging access, and extra energy demand will be critical to the rollout's success. We've assessed them in closer detail below.

We need to boost EV adoption and rapidly expand our charging infrastructure, but how?

How will the Government help us meet our Decarbonisation Targets?

For the UK to meet our targets (shown in the charts), we need to see substantial growth in both EV adoption and public charge points.

For this to happen, key challenges need to be solved. With Labour pledging to restore the 2030 phase-out deadline for new ICE vehicles, when will we see firm policy decisions to support these ambitions?

Affordable and accessible charging

The gap between public and home charging costs is growing—which remains a barrier for the ~40% of households having no off-street parking.

There have been repeated calls for the levelisation of VAT between domestic and public charging; and Labour have hinted at speeding up release of the Rapid Charging Fund—both could help lower costs for drivers, and boost the rate of new charge points.

Managing electricity demand

Maximising Smart Charging is essential to handle the additional power demand.  With most suppliers offering incentivised EV tariffs, we need to see action for those with no access to home-charging.

This could include more targeted funding to drive innovation in kerbside charging, and the widespread rollout of off-peak rates at public charge points.

Public charging costs must come down, if we want Electric Cars to be accessible

How do the running costs compare?

EVs charged at home (even without an EV Tariff) offer significant savings compared to petrol cars. Petrol cars are cheaper to run than EVs which rely exclusively on public charging.

This remains a serious barrier for some drivers—especially when combined with the practicalities of refuelling (more frequent and longer).

Location, Location, Location

The most expensive public charge points can increase the running costs by 10x compared to home charging with an EV Tariff. Per kWh, public charging can involve 40x more VAT than home charging—could this be changed?

How can public charging costs come down?

Both CPO and Energy Supplier loyalty schemes can help bring down public charging costs. Widespread rollout of off-peak / ToU tariffs at charge points could benefit drivers (as well as provide flexibility);

A big component of public charging rates is infrastructure costs—higher utilization of charge points will lower this for all users.

For more on our analysis of the EV rollout, and the opportunities for suppliers to support EV adoption, contact Tom Bromwich.