Most customers worse off due to Jan 2024 Energy Price Cap

OFGEM have released their updated Energy Price Cap figures for Q1-24, and our modelling shows this will make most customers worse off compared to Q1-23.

Analysis from the BFY Group team shows:

• Low consuming customers are likely to be ~27% worse off
• Medium consuming customers are likely to be ~6% worse off
• High consuming customers are likely to be ~5% worse off

OFGEM have reduced their estimated annual consumption (TDCV’s) - but this won’t result in a further saving for customers, as this is an updated reflection of historic consumption. This nominal saving of ~2.5% - 5% has already been seen by customers, but if we have a cold winter (as some forecasters are predicting) then bills will rise further.

Standing charges are now ~£70 per quarter, which is a significant proportion of the bill for lower consuming customers.

While government support has largely been removed, we have seen a number of suppliers put in place Winter Support Funds - offering eligible customers up to 50% off their bills through to March 2024.

N.b. this analysis is based on the National Price Cap, which uses a national average consumption and national average prices. We’ve previously discussed that due to differing regional prices and differing regional average consumption levels, there is a huge spread of true impact for customers. You can read more about this here.

For more information on the Energy Price Cap, contact Ian Barker or Matt Turner.

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