Price Cap to increase 10% in Oct-24, but annual bills stay flat

Ian Barker Small headshot image of Ian Barker, Managing Partner at BFY Group. 07 Aug 2024
Energy Market

Ofgem's headline Price Cap is set to increase 10% this Winter (~£140 rise from October-24), but the effect of seasonal demand against the quarterly changes means annual bills are expected to be flat.

Based on our projections, customers' annual bills should be ~£1,700 from 01 October, staying unchanged since April-24.

Although we saw lower rates in Ofgem's previous Price Cap (for July-24), this has little effect on annual bills due to low consumption. With more stability in annual spending, DD adequacy calculations should be easier for suppliers, enabling more accurate payments and a better customer experience.

Ofgem's headline Price Cap is due to be announced by 27 August, and should mark a ~7% drop from October-23, as prices continue to stabilise after years of volatility.

Due to falls in domestic consumption, real customer bills have fallen more than the headline Price Caps - and are around ~13% lower than the headlines.

Contact Ian Barker for more on the impact of future market projections, and falling domestic consumption. 

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Analysis based on Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs):
- 2,700 kWh per year for electricity
- 11,500 kWh per year for gas

Ian Barker

Managing Partner

Ian shapes the BFY vision and inspires our team to bring it to life, while remaining central to complex client engagements in Strategy, Commercial, and Operations.

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Small headshot image of Ian Barker, Managing Partner at BFY Group.